February 2020 Review of Market and the Economy

Macro Overview Amid uncertainty surrounding the spread of the coronavirus throughout China and internationally, global equity and bond markets reacted to supply chain disruptions and factory closures. China’s vast manufacturing sector, which is an essential component of supply chains for many U.S. companies, has become vulnerable to plant closures and employee quarantines throughout the country. […]

After the 10-Year Bull Market, Are Stocks Overvalued? After the 35-Year Bull Market in Bonds, Are Bonds Overvalued?

While no one can ever predict the future, valuations do matter and are in our opinion, very important in determining future results. The graph below shows that bonds are overpriced compared to stocks. The historical comparison of the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to the 10-year Treasury bond P/E ratio for the […]

January 2020 Economic & Market Commentary

What a difference a year makes! Unlike last year, there was no lump of coal in investors’ stockings in 2019. Instead most got a pot of gold. It was a difficult year to lose money, as virtually all asset classes ended the year with a profit – a total reversal from 2018 when the Grinch […]

2020 Vision: A View of the Economy and the Markets

A view of the U.S. economy is highly speculative with all the known unknowns: Trade Wars, Impeachment, Brexit, and the U.S. Presidential Election to name a few. Nonetheless, we look for modest growth of 2% in 2020 as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Heightened concerns of a recession that peaked in the summer have […]

December 2019 Review of Markets and Economy

Macro Overview Markets have been undermined for weeks by the uncertainty of a phase-one trade deal outlined by U.S. and Chinese trade delegates. Optimism for a probable U.S.-China trade deal stemmed from the progression toward a phase-one deal that might include a rollback of certain tariffs by both the U.S. and China. Global equity markets […]

Charitable Giving Season

– With the holiday season and end of year fast approaching, now is the time to think about charitable giving. – Now is an opportunity to donate highly appreciated stocks to your favorite charity. – Another option is to make a qualified charitable donation from an IRA. – Both options may reduce your tax bill […]

Economic & Market Commentary November 2019

Macro Overview Equity markets defied the historically negative month of October with equity indices moving higher despite ongoing trade dispute uncertainty and growing concerns of global economic headwinds. Major domestic and international equity indices rose in sync as interest rates remained low worldwide, driving assets into stocks. Monetary policy that prompted rate cuts by central […]

Diversification Is the Only Free Lunch

“Diversification is the only free lunch” in investing, says the quote attributed to Nobel Prize laureate Harry Markowitz. I like to put it this way to my clients: If you’re using only stocks and bonds to build a portfolio, you’re utilizing a small fraction of the available investment universe. As shown on the following pie […]

Economic & Market Commentary October 2019

Financial assets grudgingly moved higher during the third quarter. Equities, as measured by most indices, increased 1%-2%, except for small capitalization stocks which posted negative returns. The widely followed S&P 500 index produced a 1.7% total return, which was below each of the prior two quarters, resulting in a return of just over 20% for […]

3 Ways to Handle Market Uncertainty

Market uncertainty is a certainty. Trade War, Federal Reserve, Tariffs, Brexit, Politics, Interest Rates, Hong Kong, Middle East, and the list goes own. The world is an unpredictable place and it impacts financial markets and stocks. You have three ways to handle market uncertainty which is always with us but sometimes more intense than others. […]