Macro Overview A change in the Federal Reserve’s stance on the direction of interest rates helped buoy equity and bond prices higher in March, allowing U.S. equity indices to post the strongest first quarter in nearly ten years. The Federal Reserve scaled back its growth expectations for the U.S. economy and announced that it would […]
Some investors put all their money in one boat, the stock market. They ride the ups and downs of the market, moving things around as needed and generally trying to stay abreast of the constantly changing circumstances of business and the financial markets. If they’re smart, lucky, and/or have knowledgeable advisers, they get a decent […]
Macro Overview U.S. equities continued to defy negative sentiment and sanguine market readings as tepid economic data advanced stocks higher in February. Equities posted their best first two months of the year since 1991, rebounding from the volatile fourth quarter of 2018. Gross domestic product (GDP), the primary measure of U.S. economic growth, expanded at […]
Macro Overview A resilient U.S. economy drove equity markets to the best January in 30 years, propelling stock indices to new year gains which had not been seen since January 1989. Job and wage growth skirted the government shutdown as the number of employed increased in January along with rising wages. The unemployment rate ticked […]
The Federal Reserve is having its Hotel California moment. The Fed began quantitative easing in 2008 with a balance sheet of $800 billion, growing to $4.5 trillion. Even with quantitative tightening, the balance sheet will not be reduced back to normal levels below $1 trillion. The Fed has paused on raising rates due to a slower economy in […]
Investors got a big lump of coal in their stockings this Christmas. For equity investors, the decline in prices that started the first week of October reached a crescendo on December 24th, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered the worst Christmas Eve decline in its history, with the Average declining more than 1300 points (5.8%) […]
The market has rallied about 10% since December 26, 2018. The Fed is looking like it may pause in February. There has been some progress on China trade. Earnings for 2018 were up about 25%.
The stock market had the worst December in 2018 since the Great Depression. Even so, the U.S. economy is showing its resiliency with unemployment at its lowest level in 49 years, wage growth reaching levels not seen since 2009, and consumer spending and industrial production remaining strong. Read our recap of the month of December’s […]