The Federal Reserve’s Hotel California Moment

The Federal Reserve is having its Hotel California moment. The Fed began quantitative easing in 2008 with a balance sheet of $800 billion, growing to $4.5 trillion. Even with quantitative tightening, the balance sheet will not be reduced back to normal levels below $1 trillion. The Fed has paused on raising rates due to a slower economy in […]

Economic and Market Commentary

Investors got a big lump of coal in their stockings this Christmas. For equity investors, the decline in prices that started the first week of October reached a crescendo on December 24th, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered the worst Christmas Eve decline in its history, with the Average declining more than 1300 points (5.8%) […]

Market Volatility Spiked In December

The stock market had the worst December in 2018 since the Great Depression. Even so, the U.S. economy is showing its resiliency with unemployment at its lowest level in 49 years, wage growth reaching levels not seen since 2009, and consumer spending and industrial production remaining strong. Read our recap of the month of December’s […]

The Grinch Stole The Santa Claus Rally

Historically the markets in December are strong, but this year returns are at -14%. Most asset classes are down for the year. 4 reasons we think the Grinch may have a change of heart: The Federal Reserve China Trade Brexit Economic Activity First featured on