April 2020 Overview

Macro Overview The U.S. and global markets were encouraged with the announcement of reopening plans by various states and the probability of reigniting economic activity. Individual states started to ease restrictions and allow certain businesses to reopen for the first time since a state of emergency was declared on March 14th. Analysts and economists agree […]

Economic & Market Commentary April 2020

Choose an adjective, the past six weeks have been unrelenting, anxiety-provoking and downright scary. The spread of the coronavirus, combined with disarray in the energy markets, abruptly brought the decade-long bull market to an end on March 12th, when the S&P 500 index fell 20% below its February 19th all-time high. But that was only […]

Inflation Silent Acceleration

January’s Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) indicated inflation rising to 2.5%. Analyzing economic data for the last decade has shown a historically low rate of inflation, compared to any other period in U.S. history. In 2020, we are seeing signs of more robust data that could show a higher rate of inflation going forward. Inflation expectations […]

Review of the Markets and Economy – March 2020

Macro Overview Fear has been permeating capital markets worldwide as the impact of the (COVID-19) coronavirus continues to evolve. Global economic forecasts have been revised downward by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank as factory closures, quarantines, and travel bans continue to hinder numerous industries. The Federal Reserve helped alleviate markets with […]

January 2020 Economic & Market Commentary

What a difference a year makes! Unlike last year, there was no lump of coal in investors’ stockings in 2019. Instead most got a pot of gold. It was a difficult year to lose money, as virtually all asset classes ended the year with a profit – a total reversal from 2018 when the Grinch […]

Diversification Is the Only Free Lunch

“Diversification is the only free lunch” in investing, says the quote attributed to Nobel Prize laureate Harry Markowitz. I like to put it this way to my clients: If you’re using only stocks and bonds to build a portfolio, you’re utilizing a small fraction of the available investment universe. As shown on the following pie […]

Economic & Market Commentary October 2019

Financial assets grudgingly moved higher during the third quarter. Equities, as measured by most indices, increased 1%-2%, except for small capitalization stocks which posted negative returns. The widely followed S&P 500 index produced a 1.7% total return, which was below each of the prior two quarters, resulting in a return of just over 20% for […]

3 Reasons Interest Rates have Reversed and are Headed Down

Number 1: The potential trade war seems to have become significantly more likely, post the recent round of Trump tweets on May 5th. Trade talks that seemed close to an agreement suddenly went up in smoke. We believe that a trade war is now over a 50/50 probability. While logic would imply that China and the […]

Trade Disputes Upset Markets

Macro Overview The ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China escalated in May as the U.S. signaled that it had not finalized a deal yet with China. The lack of a deal led to the U.S. announcing an increase in tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent on $200 billion of Chinese imports. The […]

The Inflation Conundrum

Federal Reserve balance sheet is heading toward $4 trillion and the federal deficit is $1 trillion a year. Inflation for consumer goods and services is under 2%. Inflation has appeared in asset pricing – stocks, bonds, real estate, and cryptocurrency. Combination of asset price inflation and technological advances has caused deflation in some consumer services.