Number 1: The potential trade war seems to have become significantly more likely, post the recent round of Trump tweets on May 5th. Trade talks that seemed close to an agreement suddenly went up in smoke. We believe that a trade war is now over a 50/50 probability. While logic would imply that China and the […]
Macro Overview The ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China escalated in May as the U.S. signaled that it had not finalized a deal yet with China. The lack of a deal led to the U.S. announcing an increase in tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent on $200 billion of Chinese imports. The […]
Federal Reserve balance sheet is heading toward $4 trillion and the federal deficit is $1 trillion a year. Inflation for consumer goods and services is under 2%. Inflation has appeared in asset pricing – stocks, bonds, real estate, and cryptocurrency. Combination of asset price inflation and technological advances has caused deflation in some consumer services.